USD/JPY
Carry-trade stress
157.34
−0.3%+0.3% 5d
USD/JPY at 157.34 has moved +0.3% over five sessions - inside its usual range.
Eight dials, checked every hour
Each one watches a different way markets go wrong, and each is scored against its own history rather than a number someone picked years ago.
NormalElevatedStress
Normal
S&P 500
Equity drawdown, via SPY
$755.72
−1.8%−0.6% 5d
The S&P 500 is down 3.0% from its 20-day high - a fast slide.
Equity volatility
20-day realised vol of SPY
11.64%
+15.2%+19.1% 5d
Realized S&P 500 volatility is 11.6% - calm.
US 10-year yield
Rate shocks
4.98%
The 10-year yield at 4.98% has moved +2bp over five sessions - unremarkable.
Yield curve
10-year minus 3-month
0.80pp
The 10-year minus 3-month spread is +0.80 points - a normal, upward-sloping curve.
Brent crude
Oil shocks
$123.10
−3.9%+6.8% 5d
Brent crude at $123.10 has moved +6.8% over five sessions - inside its usual range.
Financial stress
System-wide strain, OFR index
-1.83
The OFR financial stress index reads -1.83 - within its typical daily range.
Inflation
CPI and core PCE, year on year
4.02%
CPI inflation is running hot at 4.0% year over year, with core PCE at 3.1%.
How a dial is scored
Market dials compare today against their own last three years: past the 85th percentile is elevated, past the 97th is stress. The bands move with the regime, so nothing goes stale.
Why some dials are fixed
A few numbers mean something absolute. An inverted yield curve is elevated whatever its history, and inflation above 3% and rising is elevated on its own terms.
Nothing here is a model
Every tier and the score are arithmetic on published figures. No model picks a tier, and no model decides what counts as risk.
Not investment advice
This page describes what published market and macro data has done. It does not predict, recommend, or advise. Nothing here is a signal to buy or sell anything.